The three charts below may indicate SPX direction over the next one to three months. The first chart is a 2 1/2 year chart of SPX with its 20-day MA (black and blue lines), VIX 20-day MA (red line), and CPC 20-day MA (green line). There's generally negative correlations between SPX and VIX and SPX and CPC. Also, when the 20-day MAs of VIX and CPC are at bottoms, SPX is often near a top, and when the 20-day MAs of VIX and CPC are at tops, SPX is often near a bottom. Currently, the VIX and CPC 20-day MAs are low compared to SPX, which may indicate SPX is near a top.

The second chart is analogous to the first chart, except 50-day MAs are used. The negative correlations are similar, and the 50-day MAs of VIX and CPC are also low compared to SPX. One notable difference is the VIX 20-day MA has been falling, while the VIX 50-day MA has been flat after rising. The second chart also shows the SPX 50-day MA tends to rise, fall, rise, etc. Currently, the SPX 50-day MA is rising at a decreasing rate after rising for five months. So, the SPX 50-day MA may be close to flattening and then falling (the SPX 20-day MA has somewhat similar movements).

The third chart is a three-year SPX monthly chart with Bollinger Bands. At the beginning of the cyclical bull market, SPX rallied into the upper half of the monthly Bollinger Bands and then generally traded between the middle and upper bands. In October 2005, SPX fell to the middle band, rallied to the upper band, and then traded just below the upper band, which has been resistance. Also, the ZigZag line shows each time SPX rose to the upper band, it pulled-back towards the middle band. The previous two times SPX rallied to the upper band, it pulled-back over 7% and over 6% within three months.

The three charts suggest SPX will more likely fall, within the next three months, than rise. However, if SPX continues to rise, it may be constrained by the monthly upper Bollinger Band, currently about 1,308. Also, the monthly middle Bollinger Band, currently at 1,204, has been support over the recent bull market. A 6% fall from 1,310 is 1,231 and a 7% decline is 1,218, which would continue to hold the monthly middle Bollinger Band. If SPX falls or closes below the monthly middle Bollinger Band, that may signal the end of the cyclical bull market.